Is the Open Source Bubble about to Burst?

(EDIT: I wrote an update here.)

I want to start by making one thing clear: I’m not comparing open source software to typical Gartneresque tech hype bubbles like the metaverse or blockchain. FOSS as both a movement and as an industry has long standing roots and has established itself as a critical part of our digital world and is part of a wider movement based on values of collaboration and openness.

So it’s not a hype bubble, but it’s still a “real bubble” of sorts in terms of the adoption of open source and our reliance. Github, which hosts many open source projects, has been consistently reporting around 2 million first time contributors to OSS each year since 2021 and the number is trending upwards. Harvard Business School has estimated in a recent working paper that the value of OSS to the economy is 4.15 Billion USD.

There are far more examples out there but you see the point. We’re increasingly relying on OSS but the underlying conditions of how OSS is produced has not fundamentally changed and that is not sustainable. Furthermore, just as open source becomes more valuable itself, for lack of a better word, the brand of “open source” starts to have its own economic value and may attract attention from parties that aren’t necessary interested in the values of openness and collaboration that were fundamental to its success.

I want to talk about three examples I see of cracks that are starting to form which signal big challenges in the future of OSS.

1. The “Open Source AI” Definition

I’m not very invested into AI, and I’m convinced it’s on its way out. Big Tech is already losing money over their gambles on it and it won’t be long till it’s gone the way of the Dodo and the blockchain. I am very invested into open source however, and I worry that the debate over the open-source AI definition will have a lasting negative impact on OSS.

A system that can only be built on proprietary data can only be proprietary. It doesn’t get simpler than this self-evident axiom. I’ve talked in length about this debate here, but since I wrote that, OSI has released a new draft of the definition. Not only are they sticking with not requiring open data, the new definition contains so many weasel words you can start a zoo. Words like:

• “sufficiently detailed information about the data”
• “skilled person”
• “substantially equivalent system”

These words provide a barn-sized backdoor for what are essentially proprietary AI systems to call themselves open source.

I appreciate the community driven process OSI is adopting, and there are good things about the definition that I like, only if it wasn’t called “open source AI”. If it was called anything else, it might still be useful, but the fact that it associates with open source is the issue.

It erodes the fundamental values of what makes open source what it is to users, the freedom to study, modify, run and distribute software as they see fit. AI might go silently into the night but this harm to the definition of open source will stay forever.

2. The Rise of “Source-Available” Licenses

Another concerning trend is the rise of so-called “source-available” licenses. I will go into depth on this in a later article, but the gist of it is this. Open source software doesn’t just mean that you get to see the source code in addition to the software. It’s well agreed that for software to qualify as open source or free software, one should be able to use, study, modify and distribute it as they see fit. That also means that the source is available for free and open source software.

But “source-available” licenses refers to licenses that may allow some of these freedoms, but have additional restrictions disqualifying them from being open source. These licenses have existed in some form since the early 2000s, but recently we’ve seen a lot of high profile formerly open source projects switch to these restrictive licenses. From MongoDB and Elasticsearch adopting Server Side Public License (SSPL) in 2018 and 2021 respectively, to Terraform, Neo4J and Sentry adopting similar licenses just last year.

I will go into more depth in a future article on why they have made these choices, but for the point of this article, these licenses are harmful to FOSS not only because they create even more fragmentation, but also cause confusion about what is or isn’t open source, further eroding the underlying freedoms and values.

3. The EU’s Cut to Open Source Funding

Perhaps one of the most troubling developments is the recent decision by the European Commission to cut funding for the Next Generation Internet (NGI) initiative. The NGI initiative supported the creation and development of many open source projects that wouldn’t exist without this funding, such as decentralized solutions, privacy-enhancing technologies, and open-source software that counteract the centralization and control of the web by large tech corporations.

The decision to cancel its funding is a stark reminder that despite all the good news, the FOSS ecosystem is still very fragile and reliant on external support. Programs like NGI not only provide vital funding, but also resources, and guidance to incubate newer projects or help longer standing ones become established. This support is essential for maintaining a healthy ecosystem in the public interest.

It’s troubling to lose some critical funding when the existing funding is already not enough. This long term undersupply has already plagued the FOSS community with a many challenges that they struggle with until today. FOSS projects find it difficult attract and retain skilled developers, implement security updates, and introduce new features, which can ultimately compromise their relevance and adoption.

Additionally, a lack of support can lead to burnout among maintainers, who often juggle multiple roles without sufficient or any compensation. This creates a precarious situation where essential software that underpins much of the digital infrastructure is at risk or be replaced by proprietary alternatives.

And if you don’t think that’s bad, I want to refer to that Harvard Business school study from earlier: While the estimated value of FOSS to the economy is around 4.15 billion USD, the cost to replace all this software we rely upon is 8.8 trillion. A 25 million investment into that ecosystem seems like a no-brainer to me, I think it’s insane that the EC is cutting this funding.

It Does and It Doesn’t Matter if the Bubble Bursts

FOSS has become so integral and critical due to its fundamental freedoms and values. Time and time again, we’ve seen openness and collaboration triumph against obfuscation and monopolies. It will surely survive these challenges and many more. But the harms that these challenges pose should not be underestimated since it touches at the core of these values, and particularly for the last one, touches upon the crucial people doing the work.

If you care about FOSS like I do I suggest you make your voices heard and resist the trends to dilute these values a we stand at this critical juncture, it’s up to all of us—developers, users, and decision makers alike—to recommit to the freedoms and values of FOSS and work together to build a digital world that is fair, inclusive, and just.