I Was Wrong About the Open Source Bubble

This is a follow up to my previous post where I discussed some factors indicating an imbalance in the open source ecosystem titled, Is the Open Source Bubble about to Burst? I was very happy to see some of the engagement with the blog post, even if some people seemed like they didn’t read past the title and were offended by characterizing open source as a bubble, or assuming simply because I’m talking about the current state of FOSS, or how some companies use it, that this somehow reflects my position on free software vs. open source.

Now, I wasn’t even the first or only person to suggest an Open Source bubble might exist. The first mention of the concept that I could find was by Simon Phipps, similarly asking “Is the Open Source bubble over?” all the way back in 2010, and I believe it’s an insightful framing for the time that we see culminate in all the pressures I alluded to in my post.

The second mention I could find is from Baldur Bjarnason, who wrote about Open Source Software and compared it to the blogging bubble. It’s a great blog post, and Baldur even wrote a newer article in response to mine talking about “Open Source surplus”, which is a framing I like a lot. I would recommend reading both. I’m very thankful for the thoughtful article.

Last week as well, Elastic announced it’s returning to open source, reversing one of the trends I talked about. Obviously, they didn’t want to admit they were wrong, saying it was the right move at the time. I have some thoughts about that, but I’ll keep them to myself, if that’s the excuse they need to tell themselves to end up open source again, then I won’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Hope more “source-open” projects follow.

Finally, the article was mentioned in my least favorite tech tabloid, The Register. Needless to say, there isn’t and won’t be an open source AI wars, since there won’t be AI to worry about soon. An industry that is losing billions of dollars a year and is heavily energy intensive that it would accelerate our climate doom won’t last. OSI has a decision to make, to either protect the open source definition and their reputation, or risk both.

P.S. I will continue to ignore any AI copium so save us both some time.